Do you use schedule or tracking tools to predict the future? None of them can predict the future. Worse, too many of them hide the past, especially the recent past. A schedule or tracking tool can only predict one thing: the first possible date you cannot prove you cannot finish the project/story by. Let me […]
This is the March 2025 Pragmatic Manager Newsletter, from Johanna Rothman. The Unsubscribe link is at the bottom of this email. Susan, a product leader, has a big problem. One of the senior managers, Tim, often wants to know the cost (or time) required for a new feature or a new product. So he asks
Are you trying to use story points for estimation? If so, you might have encountered these problems: Story points reflect the ideal thinking of the team, not the actual experience of the team. Your managers don’t want story points—they want durations and dates. In the absence of sufficient information, everyone makes up fiction (human stories)
In Effective Agility Requires Cultural Changes: Part 1, I said that real agile approaches require cultural change to focus on flow efficiency, where we focus on watching the work, not the people. Too few organizations can do that. But teams can change how they work—in any approach. Here are three suggestions to emulate flow efficiency
In the first post, How Centralization Decisions Create Friction, Increase Cycle Time, and Cost Money, Part 1, I explained how centralizing even relatively small decisions to centralize has high costs. Why do organizations centralize? To supposedly capitalize on “economies of scale.” That’s the problem of understanding the cost of work—but not the value of that
I started this series with the issues of trying to estimate/predict a specific backlog item quarters away, not even weeks away. (Even weeks away is iffy because the entropy is the default state for the world.) In Part 1, I suggested that the team can use cycle time, but even with cycle time, we need
In How to Predict When the Team Will Complete a Specific Backlog Item, Part 1, I said there was no way to accurately predict an estimate for a specific backlog item more than a month away. I did suggest several options if you want to go through the motions, but there’s no accurate answer to
Your team has one of those long roadmaps or a long backlog. They’re working, delivering about two items (full stories) a week. Then, your manager asks you this question: “That feature set in six months: when will you start it and when will you finish it?” “We could start it now,” you say, “assuming we
Do your senior leaders want more predictability about when your team can finish its work? Perfect prediction is impossible, and sometimes, even reasonable prediction is quite difficult (with apologies to Yogi Berra). However, agile teams have one specific “tool” to create better predictability: right-sizing their stories. When a team right-sizes their work, they can create
We use product roadmaps to see where we want to go and the options we might take to get there. Yet, so many of our roadmaps offer only a single and certain destination. If we don’t see options, we reduce our innovation decision points—and possibly disappoint our customers. Worse, we create products that don’t fulfill