In How to Predict When the Team Will Complete a Specific Backlog Item, Part 1, I said there was no way to accurately predict an estimate for a specific backlog item more than a month away. I did suggest several options if you want to go through the motions, but there’s no accurate answer to […]
Your team has one of those long roadmaps or a long backlog. They’re working, delivering about two items (full stories) a week. Then, your manager asks you this question: “That feature set in six months: when will you start it and when will you finish it?” “We could start it now,” you say, “assuming we
Most projects encounter problems at some point, regardless of the size of the team and the people’s capabilities. For example, in a six-person team, TeamA, Tom resigned to follow his wife to her new job. Dick became quite ill and went out on short-term disability for the next three months. And Harry needed significant time
Do your senior leaders want more predictability about when your team can finish its work? Perfect prediction is impossible, and sometimes, even reasonable prediction is quite difficult (with apologies to Yogi Berra). However, agile teams have one specific “tool” to create better predictability: right-sizing their stories. When a team right-sizes their work, they can create
Are you trying to make an agile framework or approach work? Maybe you have technical or schedule risk. Or, maybe you’ve received a mandate to “go agile.” Maybe you’d like to experiment with better ways of working. Or, maybe you’re trying to fit an agile framework into your current processes—and you’ve got a mess. You’re
What happens when you use the word “estimate?” For many of my clients, “estimate”== guarantee. Which is not what those words mean. Even if you update the estimate based on data, too many managers still want to know, “When will it be done?” Emphasis on done. And, while managers might not remember the assumptions you
Creating Trustworthy Estimates Do the people who ask you for estimates trust your estimates? It’s difficult to build trustworthy estimates. Here are three tips you can try for estimates that work for you, not against you. Tip #1: Never provide a single-point estimate. When people ask me for an estimate, I provide a percentage confidence
For years, we bought the cone of uncertainty for estimation—that is, our estimates were just as likely to be over as under. Laurent Bossavit, in The Leprechauns of Software Engineering, shows us how that assumption is wrong. (It was an assumption that some people, including me, assumed was real.) This is a Gaussian (normal) distribution.
The Pragmatic Manager, Volume 1 #1 Feature Article: Three Parts of Estimation Project work estimation has three components: the initial first cut, commonly known as a SWAG (Scientific Wild Tush Guess), tracking the estimate against the actuals, and using the schedule to see what’s happening in your project. Part 1: Initial Estimate If you’re a