In the first part of this series, I said I liked order-of-magnitude estimates. I also like targets in lieu of estimates. I’ll say more about how estimates can be useful in part 3. In this part, I’ll discuss when I don’t like estimates. I find estimates not useful under these conditions: When the people estimating are […]
After the article I referenced in Moving to Agile Contracts was published, there was a little kerfuffle on Twitter. Some people realized I was talking about the value of estimates and #noestimates. Some folks thought I was advocating never estimating anything. Let me clarify my position. I like order-of-magnitude estimates. I don’t hire people without
I’ve been teaching workshops these last few weeks. A number of the participants think that they need to create great estimates. I keep hearing, “I have to create accurate estimates. My team needs my estimate to be accurate.” I have found that the smaller the work, the better the estimate. If people work as a team,
Commitments or Resilience Ben, a program manager, said, “My management wants a quarterly commitment. They think this will let them commit to customers about features. But, this is a problem for a couple of reasons: we change our minds more often than once every 12 weeks and the managers are talking to other managers, not
Ryan Ripley “highly recommends” Predicting the Unpredictable: Pragmatic Approaches to Estimating Cost or Schedule. See his post: Pragmatic Agile Estimation: Predicting the Unpredictable. He says this: This is a practical book about the work of creating software and providing estimates when needed. Her estimation troubleshooting guide highlights many of the hidden issues with estimating such as:
I published my most recent newsletter, Creating Trustworthy Estimates, this past week. I also noted on Twitter that one person said his estimates created trust in his organization. (He was responding to a #noestimate post that I had retweeted.) Sometimes, estimates do create trust. They provide a comfortable feeling to many people that you have
Creating Trustworthy Estimates Do the people who ask you for estimates trust your estimates? It’s difficult to build trustworthy estimates. Here are three tips you can try for estimates that work for you, not against you. Tip #1: Never provide a single-point estimate. When people ask me for an estimate, I provide a percentage confidence
I’m happy to announce that Predicting the Unpredictable: Pragmatic Approaches to Estimating Cost or Schedule is done and available. It’s available in electronic and print formats. If you need a little help explaining your estimates or how to use estimation (even #noestimate), read this book.
Several years ago, I had a senior VP as a client. He wanted his managers to work as more of a team. He thought they were not working together for the good of the company. I asked him why he thought that. “When they estimate, they don’t work together on an estimate. They each estimate
I have a new article up on agileconnection.com called The Case for #NoEstimates. The idea is to produce value instead of spending time estimating. We have a vigorous “debate” going on in the comments. I have client work today, so I will be slow to answer comments. I will answer as soon as I have